Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 22.203607 24.116138 26.173211 28.559714 31.264114 34.247633 37.807360
2026-01-25 19.023970 21.635609 24.636832 28.378448 32.971765 38.498890 45.766172
2026-02-01 16.919877 19.919734 23.546139 28.332861 34.610695 42.752862 54.447184
2026-02-08 15.343033 18.557372 22.601942 28.194922 35.949936 46.689456 63.414863
2026-02-15 14.113491 17.448936 21.786570 28.024650 37.101272 50.431035 72.822000
2026-02-22 13.115513 16.516349 21.064297 27.830330 38.104496 54.023156 82.754662
2026-03-01 12.334587 15.787894 20.522540 27.786531 39.262626 57.975811 94.244879
2026-03-08 11.669540 15.152999 20.036113 27.739431 40.362811 61.967711 106.881009
2026-03-15 11.340058 14.955193 20.146487 28.591590 43.012407 69.116164 128.168262
2026-03-22 10.752156 14.336779 19.573699 28.285076 43.620297 72.584062 142.626269
2026-03-29 10.291062 13.870133 19.188112 28.232440 44.650550 77.049950 161.201749
2026-04-05 9.944016 13.548037 18.995538 28.472794 46.236184 82.968540 186.241984
2026-04-12 9.499235 13.061442 18.525045 28.218524 46.904610 87.202102 209.211033
2026-04-19 9.114832 12.646475 18.141976 28.084715 47.804173 92.219686 237.876369
2026-04-26 8.783410 12.294324 17.835416 28.056794 48.916584 98.048015 273.594375
2026-05-03 8.460313 11.936397 17.493297 27.927212 49.793161 103.526364 312.571113
2026-05-10 8.156527 11.592377 17.150624 27.761665 50.565270 108.953975 356.570057
2026-05-17 7.871520 11.263572 16.812047 27.570835 51.252000 114.357950 406.501499
2026-05-24 7.631566 10.995873 16.561474 27.527966 52.275898 121.087918 472.426767
2026-05-31 7.407550 10.743149 16.320862 27.481618 53.285603 128.126156 551.466213
2026-06-07 7.332115 10.733075 16.507996 28.322640 56.625133 144.093536 727.760941
2026-06-14 7.094243 10.437669 16.162808 28.020187 56.995978 149.877506 836.163863
2026-06-21 6.906017 10.218466 15.944236 27.968251 58.026045 158.563190 1001.045169